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FX Weekly Report

The FX Weekly Report provides the latest, in-depth forex technical analysis about the FX market each week. By Pierre Charlebois.

Thank you Trading Metro (0)

Hi all,

With regret I will no longer be posting the weekly report. All things change and so I must move on. I want to thank Sam and the gang at Trading Metro for the great experience and wish you all good fortune in your trading.

Peace

Pierre

Has USD turned towards further strengthening? (0)

Price action on the Dollar Index has now starting forming a range. The question going forward now will be if the larger trend has trully changed.

 

USD Index – Is this the start of an upward channel?

USDindex_Jan_17_10

 

EUR/USD – Important support at 143.30 – A break lower could signal increased downside risk

EURUSD_Jan_17_10

 

GBP/USD – Still range bound

GBPUSD_Jan_17_10

 

USD/JPY – Resistance has become support – Very important potential pivot point around .90

USDJPY_Jan_17_10

 

USD/CHF -  Could also be in a new channel

USDCHF_Jan_17_10

 

AUD/USD – Could this pair be forming a double top?

AUDUSD_Jan_17_10

 

NZD/USD – And has this pair topped or could it double top?

NZDUSD_Jan_17_10

 

USD/CAD – Is this pair making a double bottom?

USDCAD_Jan_17._10

 

EUR/JPY – Range bound…

EURJPY_Jan_17_10

The Dollar has started the week off loosing ground but… (0)

The USD strengthening is certainly overdue. It is hard yet to tell if this recent move is more than a correction however the break is strong. I also ask myself if the overall long term weakness in the Dollar is going to continue. So will the Dollar strength be a correction or long term reversal?

USD Index – At this point starting the week with a downward correction might yield to another gain mid week.

USDindex_Jan_10_10

 

EUR/USD – Has the pull back been a correction or the beginning of a new trend?

EURUSD_Jan_10_10

 

GBP/USD – Anything is possible with this pair at this puncture

GBPUSD_Jan_10_10

 

USD/JPY – The trend may be changing but in the short term some more correction is possible.

USDJPY_Jan_10_10

 

USD/CHF – I would think that par is a significant barrier

USDCHF_Jan_10_10

 

AUD/USD – $0.94 is likely to be very significant for either a break out or reversal

AUDUSD_Jan_10_10

 

NZD/USD – Like the Aussie this pair should be well observed at a double top?

NZDUSD_Jan_10_10

 

USD/CAD – Wow… will the Loonie make par again?

USDCAD_Jan_10._10

 

EUR/JPY – Still range bound – Slight bias to the upside

EURJPY_Jan_10_10

3 Weeks of USD strength – Will the year start with more or is there a correction due? (0)

The USD closed the year with a bang and reversed a 9 month trend. With how steep the trend is, it is reasonable to think the overall trend may have changed. Some correction is due, however with the volatility of late just about anything is possible.

UDS Index – Trend may have changed

USDindex_Jan_03_10

 

EUR/USD – Consolidation or continuation?

EURUSD_Jan_03_10

 

GBP/USD – Direction unclear

GBPUSD_Jan_03_10

 

EUR/JPY – Is the upside over?

USDJPY_Jan_03_10

 

AUD/USD – Direction unclear

AUDUSD_Jan_03_10

 

NZD/USD – Also unclear – Not a strong downtrend

NZDUSD_Jan_03_10

 

USD/CAD – Also unclear

USDCAD_Jan_03_10

 

USD/CHF – Consolidating with upside potential to follow

USDCHF_Jan_03_10

 

EUR/JPY – Still range bound

EURJPY_Jan_03_10

Will USD strength continue through to next year? (0)

The move by the USD on the index and against the EURO is impulsive looking. A pull back is due however medium term USD strength is likely to continue.

USD Index – Impulsive looking move up – Re-tracement due.

USDindex_Dec_27_09

 

EUR/USD – Impulsive looking – Are 5 wave down complete? Or is there a thrust left to come prior to a larger retracement?

EURUSD_Dec_27_09

 

GBP/USD – Still very corrective looking – Re-tracement possible

GBPUSD_Dec_27_09

 

USD/JPY – Room for more upside

USDJPY_Dec_27_09

 

USD/CHF – Consolidation expected

USDCHF_Dec_27_09

 

AUD/USD – Looks like consolidation is due on this pair as well

AUDUSD_Dec_27_09

 

NZD/USD – Pattern not clear – Upside possible

NZDUSD_Dec_27_09

 

USD/CAD – Very unclear pattern – CAD has held surprisingly well against the USD

USDCAD_Dec_27_09

 

EUR/JPY – Still range bound

EURJPY_Dec_27_09

USD – From Zero to Hero (0)

The last two weeks the USD has gained extremely well and seems to have signaled an overall trend change. Having said that, the strong move is due for consolidation/correction so use caution this week with thin volume ahead of the Holidays. Have a happy Season all and I will see you in the  New Year.

 

USD Index – Correction due/coming?

USDindex_Dec_21_09

 

EUR/USD – Consolidating?

EURUSD_Dec_21_09

 

GBP/USD – Still making a series of corrective looking moves – Direction unclear

GBPUSD_Dec_21_09

 

USD/CHF – Correction/consolidation due?

USDCHF_Dec_21_09

 

USD/JPY – Could be a break-out

USDJPY_Dec_21_09

 

AUD/USD – Down trend looks weak

AUDUSD_Dec_21_09

 

NZD/USD – Not a convincing trend here either

NZDUSD_Dec_21_09

 

USD/CAD – Stuck in a range – Anything can happen

USDCAD_Dec_21_09

 

EUR/JPY – Surprisingly quiet – But the short term trend points up

EURJPY_Dec_21_09

USD strengthening – Will this continue? (0)

The shape of the top on the EUR/USD is unorthodox and not typical. However the move down at this point is strong and impulsive. The next few weeks should be volatile and provide longer term direction.

 

USD Index – The move up is typical of a reversal – Let’s observer where and how a re-trace happens.

USDindex_Dec_13_09

 

EUR/USD – Top is unorthodox but the drop is strong

EURUSD_Dec_13_09

 

GBP/USD – Trend-line is broken

GBPUSD_Dec_13_09

 

USD/JPY – Trading in a very large channel

USDJPY_Dec_13_09

 

USD/CHF – Re-trace coming due

USDCHF_Dec_13_09

 

AUD/USD – Hard to call a top here

AUDUSD_Dec_13_09

 

NZD/USD – Also in limbo

NZDUSD_Dec_13_09

 

USD/CAD – Very narrow range – Which way will it break?

USDCAD_Dec_13_09

 

EUR/JPY – Still in long term range

EURJPY_Dec_13_09

Volatility hits 6 month high in many Forex pairs – What does this signal? (0)

Friday’s moves in many Forex exchange rates as well as other key markets, is signaling just how much anxiety is pent up in traders who are now hanging on every new news item being released.

Technically this indicates a break out or reversal is taking place or is about to. Seeing where we are on the Dollar index and in particular the EUR/USD the balance of the year will prove to be interesting to say the least. I dare say, many a trader and investor will look back on this time as one of the most interesting if not bizarre times in the markets.

USD index – Will the break-out be real this time? How much pull-back might be seen?

USDindex_Dec_5_09

 

EUR/USD – The current structure still qualifies as an ending diagonal but the size of the drop can not be ignored. Is there a final top left to come or is this the beginning of a drop. The Price is truly at cross-roads.

I’ve supplied two opposing potential counts on the shorter term.

EURUSD_Dec_6_09

EURUSD_Dec_5_09

EURUSD_Dec_5_09_b

 

GBP/USD – This pair did not drop as much as the EUR/USD but the candle pattern suggests a bearish potential.

GBPUSD_Dec_6_09

 

USD/JPY – The reversal was overdue – The question now is where will the retrace come?

USDJPY_Dec_6_09

 

USD/CHF – Will the break-out hold? The move is not yet truly constructive

USDCHF_Dec_6_09

 

AUD/USD – This pair is also still in a range

AUDUSD_Dec_6_09

 

NSD/USD – This pair is not yet quite constructive on the downside either. Range may still hold

NZDUSD_Dec_6_09

 

USD/CAD – Another range bound pair

USDCAD_Dec_6_09

 

EUR/JPY – Is there yet a new top to come?

EURJPY_Dec_6_09

Volatility remains high as the US Dollar continues to try and reverse its fortunes (0)

This week saw a sudden turn back towards Dollar strength and a brief flight to safety amid the news out of the middle east regarding Dubai’s financial debacle.

It demonstrates how fragile the overall picture is of the world economy. Knowing this, the question is; what event might cause further reaction by investors and traders to run to safety in the USD.

From a technical perspective a common way a long term trend would end is in an Ending Diagonal (wedge). I have included a potential ‘Elliott Wave’ count on EUR/USD as one possibility of such a hampering.

Of course these counts on shorter term charts are always quite subjective so anything is still possible.

 

USD Index – Trend-line still holding…

USDindex_Nov_29_09

 

EUR/USD – Is there an ending diagonal forming?

EURUSD_Nov_29_09

EURUSD_Nov_27_09

 

GBP/USD – Top may hold

GBPUSD_Nov_29_09

 

USD/JPY – Is a bottom forming?

USDJPY_Nov_29_09

 

USD/CHF – Reflects the Index

USDCHF_Nov_29_09

 

AUD/USD – Channel support broken

AUDUSD_Nov_29_09

 

NZD/USD – Is there a new channel forming?

NZDUSD_Nov_29_09

 

USD/CAD – Range narrowing; which way will the break-out be?

USDCAD_Nov_29_09

 

EUR/JPY – Will the reversal be significant?

EURJPY_Nov_29_09

Dollar could be reaching the Rubicon (0)

Looking at the Dollar Index, there is evidence that the long term trend is breaking down as the price action is now on the opposite side of the line. There is always a chance the price action could trail down further using the line as support, however this usually signals a limited move.

 

USD Index – There is now a trend-line that could act as resistance. A move above 77.00 would bolster the bullish case.

USDindex_Nov_21_09

 

EUR/USD – Could be breaking – This week will be interesting

EURUSD_Nov_21_09

 

GBP/USD – My view here is I expect some downside but I wonder if it will be limited

GBPUSD_Nov_21_09

 

USD/JPY – Will this pair ever bottom? There is a current support. Will it hold?

USDJPY_Nov_21_09

 

USD/CHF – Looks a lot like the Index or the EUR/USD upside down

USDCHF_Nov_21_09

 

AUD/USD – Broke trend line but did not close below it. Let’s see what happens following the retrace

AUDUSD_Nov_21_09

 

NZD/USD – This pair has broken through it’s long term trend-line. A break below .7080 could bring acceleration

NZDUSD_Nov_21_09

 

USD/CAD – Seems to be working higher. The 1.09 area is the next resistance point

USDCAD_Nov_21_09

 

EUR/JPY – Until the long term range is broken not much can be observed here

EURJPY_Nov_21_09

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