Our analysis focuses heavily on price development and structure as it is the only way to generate accurate support and resistance. Founder Ian Copsey, uses his own adapted form of Elliott Wave along with derivatives of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios to derive support and resistance.
This approach to technical analysis is truly unique and has proven to give traders additional, and valuable insight into their trading.
FX-Forecaster’s hallmark service is The Daily Forecaster analysis service which offers daily insight into 9 different currency pairs, and includes a full overview from a general perspective as well as support resistance, biases, and short to medium-term targets.
About the Founder
Ian Copsey is a veteran technician having begun his career in Foreign Exchange over 27 years ago. His book “Integrated Technical Analysis” has been read by over 4,000 readers worldwide. His experience ranges from working in Barclays Bank’s trading rooms in London and Hong Kong, acting as a technical analysis specialist for Dow Jones Telerate in Tokyo where he provided seminars for bank traders and also as the regional manager for technical analysis products in Asia Pacific.
He has also developed a series of unique indicators and deep experience in system development. He has lived in Asia for 22 years in Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo, where he now lives with his Japanese wife.
For more about Ian’s analysis philosophy, click on the “Philosophy” tab.
My analysis is different.
I do not apologize for that. In fact the way I do things differently helps provide the higher percentage of accurate support & resistance levels which my long term subscribers make consistent profit.
Many appear confused that I provide both bullish and bearish analysis. Some say that I’m hedging my bets or don’t know which way it’s going. In fact that isn’t true. I have spent many years studying price. Price is the only way to forecast accurately. It does develop in structures that when recognized do provide excellent indications of not only where it’s going but also when the underlying assumption is proven wrong.
However, there are countless potential variations that could fit into these structures. Is price going to retrace 23.6% or possibly 50%, or even 61.8%? It can retrace 100%! It would be no sense in advising traders to buy/sell at the 61.8% retracement as it may stall at 50% in which case the opportunity is lost. It could retrace 100% which will trigger the stop loss.
In more directional moves price has its own structure and each currency has quirks and more common wave relationships that it often (but not always) tends to follow. Therefore if price stops moving in a structure that would confirm that the directional movement then there are often very clear support/resistance levels that indicate a larger reversal.
While these may be against my bias, they are clearly fundamental trigger levels in my analysis. It is possible to make considerable profit out of trading these breaks.
My approach is that if I only provide analysis that supports by directional bias for the day, then if I’m wrong then a subscriber will not get value for money. He/she has nor guidance for those instances. I don’t consider that good service…
However, it does mean that a trader must think about his trades and where the next profitable move may be.
Understanding Price is the Most Important Factor in Trading
Let me attempt to describe what I mean by this and how my most profitable subscribers make their profit.
I use cycles to identify the overall direction. Is the main trend up or is it down? Conveniently I can utilize the terms “weekly cycles” and “daily cycles” but in fact they all integrate into one large structure of cyclic pressures which affect price.
I use Elliott Wave as my main tool for understanding how price should move within the underlying direction. Elliott Wave provides structure, the manner in which price should develop and when complemented by Fibonacci and harmonic ratios it is possible to identify likely stalling areas in both trend projections and corrective retracements.
Take a simple 5 wave move. This represents a trending move (or part of a counter trend.)
Without going deeply into Elliott Wave, each wave has guidelines that will provide common areas of when they will stall, how far they will correct or extend. In addition each wave should also develop in a particular way that should be in accordance with that particular type/position of wave. In particular Wave 4 has common retracement levels which may be used to take advantage of the extension in Wave 5.
Now let’s look at a 3 wave move. This represents a corrective structure.
Well, it maybe that due to a move becoming more complicated that the underlying analysis is incorrect and the anticipated trending move doesn’t follow-through higher. This will mean that Wave 1 was actually a Wave (a), Wave 2 was Wave (b) and Wave 3 was actually Wave (c). Thus a larger correction is due.
Breach of the key support area that breaks the upward structure can be a great trading opportunity!
Do you really want to be without the potentially profit-making knowledge of what will happen if a support or resistance area breaks?
How do you know which support or resistance will provide the trade?
It is impossible to be 100% correct in forecasting markets. Therefore we need tools to strengthen the odds in our favor. Which support will hold in an uptrend? Which projection will price move to in a trend.
I like to be correct 100% of the time. This is the way I measure the success of my analysis. However, pride doesn’t always make profit. It is therefore imperative that you do your own due diligence.
This is where a news release can have a larger impact in extending a trend or even suggest a price reversal. So what can you do to protect yourself at these times? My key support/resistance levels are recognized as providing high percentage trade opportunities. The key is to filter the choices by other techniques.
Integration of Analysis and Setup Signals
To act on indicator set up signals one must have confidence in support and resistance levels. My methodology of deriving support and resistance levels is based on my own adaptation of Elliott Wave and is recognized as being some of the most reliable levels in the market.
Acting on either support/resistance or set up signals in isolation raises the chances of failure. While I will never claim that these techniques will never lose money, with hard study and application these can provide solid results as my other subscribers clearly find.
I’ve been reviewing and reading your commentary here for years and thought it about time to thank you for the great work. I absolutely love the content and insight you provide and think it is truly great work and a wonderful source of knowledge to anyone’s trading strategy.– MC
I didn’t believe anybody can predict market moves, but it is often uncanny how accurate your analysis is with regards to moves in the FX market. With a sound money management strategy, my FX trading has improved considerably. Keep up the excellent work.– Simon Hurt, The Trader’s Mind
Dear Ian, a very profitable time. I am amazed in how you interpret the Elliott Wave theory for this currency.– DK, Texas
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