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DeCarley Trading Stock Index Report
A Trading Metro Member Blog

The Stock Index Report by Carley Garner

December 16th, 2009


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Still range bound, why not take a vacation?


The equity markets have been brutally boring to follow and open interest is suggesting that traders are ready for the holidays.  Most of the daily volume can be attributed to spread trades (rolling into the new contract); however, open interest in the March contract is much less than what was built into the December contract.  In a nutshell, many traders are calling it quits for now…and probably until January. 


Some argue that the Fed is sending mixed signals; on one hand they pledge to keep rates low in order to aid the recovery but on the other they talk about improvements in the economy.  Accordingly, the equity markets are having a difficult time choosing a near-term direction. 


The Fed chair noted that there are still reasons for concern such as constraints in household spending, a weak job market and tight credit.  The Fed expects to have an opportunity to wind down some of the emergency lending programs that were created mid-financial crisis. 


We hate to be boring, but we also don’t want to waste anybody’s time (including our own).  There isn’t much going on, we are sticking with yesterday’s call:


Never sell a quiet market!  We like the downside, but will wait for better prices and what we believe might be better timing (according to seasonal tendencies).  The S&P faces resistance in the high 1110’s  but we think that a move to 1130+ will be seen.  Similarly, we are looking for a possible rally to 623 in the Russell but the index will run into resistance near 609.  Our upside target in the NASDAQ is in the mid-to-high 1840’s.



* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.


**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.


Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini.  Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.



S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading


Position Trade -





Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading



Position Trade -




Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.



NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading


Position Trade -



Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading


Local : 702-947-0701


*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.


There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.


Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.


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