DeCarley Trading Stock Index Report

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

September 1, 2010 at 3:17 pm • Posted in General

Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off (0)

August 27th, 2010

Are long options better protection than stop loss orders? Carley and Karen Gibbs discuss…http://www.aweber.com/archive/decarleystock/U4vm

Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off

It has been a long and hard week for stock market optimists. Bad news after bad news has put unrelenting pressure on equities but today’s trade might offer enough momentum to fend off a slide in the S&P to the 1,000 area.

Second quarter GDP was revised lower as expected, but the news wasn’t as bad as most had anticipated and more importantly what the markets had priced in. As of now, it is believed that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.4% last quarter as opposed to what many believed would be much worse. Also helping the bulls were comments by the Fed chair ensuring that the Fed would be ready to step in and defend against a weaker economy if necessary.

As we have been noting in this newsletter, the market feels too bearish. Retail investors have pulled their money out of stock funds in droves and there seems to be very little interest in putting it back to work anytime soon. In fact, according to the American Association of Individual Investors, the number if individual investors that have a bullish outlook on the stock market in the next six months has plunged to 21%. This is the lowest reading since March of 2009 and we all know what happened then. I hate to say it, but once all of the weak hands are out, it is often the time to begin looking for a rally.

In yesterday’s newsletter, we were calling for a bounce to the 1065 area, and today we got what we were looking for but it will take some follow through buying early next week to confirm a near-term bottom. I hope some of you were able to capitalize on our advice of trying to get long the S&P on a dip to the mid-to-low 1030’s; the low prints weren’t see and the 1037 print was quick…

Going into Monday, it seems as though we could get a bit of digestion from the rally. Aside from seeing a 25 plus point run in the S&P from Friday’s low, historical statistics suggest that the next to last trading day of August tends to see a struggling market. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac the S&P has closed positive only twice in the last 13 years.

We see resistance in the September S&P futures near 1065 and then again just under 1070. In the meantime, support lies at 1050 and 1034.

If you are trading the NASDAQ or the Russell, we have revised our upside targets to 1835 and 624. If the markets take another big dip down, look for support near 1756 and 596. We still lean toward buying weakness.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: An e-mini S&P and e-mini NASDAQ chart are used because they better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

August 24 – Clients were advised to sell October S&P 900 puts for $8/$9 in premium.

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

August 27, 2010 at 3:51 pm • Posted in General

Options expiration halts stock index futures rally (0)

Want to know more about option spread strategies? Carley Garner and Traders’ Library have recently teamed up, Click here to purchase the Option Spread Advantage DVD from Traders’ Library!

Options expiration halts stock index futures rally

A number that used to be considered a C in terms of merit and validity has become a market-moving event. Weekly jobless claims (yes, that’s right the volatile weekly number that was previously nearly irrelevant) has been receiving increasingly more attention.

Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits and is known for being relatively volatile. Today’s reading came in much higher than expected at 500,000 and brought the 4-week moving average to 483,000. The number not only suggests the jobs market is sluggish (pointing out the obvious) but it is implying that things are getting worse. Although leading indicators didn’t follow suit, a horrific showing in the Philly Fed index shot a moderate amount of fear back into the marketplace. However, where there is fear there might also be opportunity.

It feels like everyone has simply given up on stocks…or risky assets in general. Investors young and old are moving funds into Treasuries without regard to potential return. Similar stock avoidance has been seen a few other times in history and has eventually produced a long-term buying opportunity. That said, as a futures (or options on futures) trader, we are looking much more at the short-term.

The concern voiced in yesterday’s newsletter over options expiration enabling further gains turned out to be reality but we haven’t given up on the upside. It feels as though the money has already been made on the short side, and the next “good” trade will be from the long side. We see a large band of support in the September S&P futures ranging from 1060ish down to the low 1050’s. If these prices are seen, they could very well be a great opportunity for the bulls. If you are short, we suggest tightening stops, taking profits or placing hedges. The lows might not be in quite yet, but they will probably come fast and so could the reversal.

Similar support in the NASDAQ futures lies at 1790ish and about 595 in the Russell.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: An e-mini S&P and e-mini NASDAQ chart are used because they better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

August 19, 2010 at 1:10 pm • Posted in General

Fed poses risk, but stock index bulls seem to have market by the horns (0)

August 9th, 2010

Want to know more about option spread strategies? Carley Garner and Traders’ Library have recently teamed up, Click here to purchase the Option Spread Advantage DVD from Traders’ Library!

Fed poses risk, but stock index bulls seem to have market by the horns

Light volume tends to produce market “melt-ups” and that looks to be exactly what we are getting. With school starting next week in most districts, traders are trying to squeeze in one last summer vacation and that will likely drop the daily volume to the lowest levels thus far in 2010.

There weren’t any government economic reports on the docket, so traders (those that showed up for work anyway) were more focused on preparing for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The Fed is still expected to keep rates at nearly zero, but there seems to be an uptick in speculation over when the policy might be adjusted and this could create a bit of chaos surrounding the release of the interest rate decision commentary.

As we noted on Friday, the correction that many were looking for seems to have come and gone in a single trading day. The technical set up now suggests that the S&P could rally up to 1140ish before finding some resistance. For tomorrow only, it might be a viable strategy to look to fade any FOMC rally to such levels.

Overall, our upside target in the S&P will be 1140 with the possibility of 1150ish. In the Russell, we think the odds favor a move to 680 and in the NASDAQ we are looking for about 1930 for starters.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: An e-mini S&P and e-mini NASDAQ chart are used because they better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

August 9, 2010 at 11:51 am • Posted in General

Slow start to the trading week (0)

July 26th, 2010

Marc Pearlman recently interviewed DeCarley’s own, Carley Garner

Click here to listen

Slow start to the trading week

Aside from new home sales, there was little economic data to move the markets and judging by the volume many traders opted to sleep in. However, earnings season is winding down and thus far the numbers have been solid. Most firms have beat expectations on both the top and bottom line and this paves the way for stock market stability.

Nonetheless, we are approaching what has been the second worst month for the S&P since 1987. Although late July is statistically positive, the market might be in store for one more large dip before a larger “bottom” can be made.

Additionally, keep in mind that according to last week’s Commitment of Traders report provided by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) small speculators have gone from short to long in the S&P. I hate to jinx the recent trend-channel break-out but small specs turning bullish might be a sign of a bull trap.

The rally doesn’t seem to have run its course just yet. We are looking for a possible move into the 1120’s in the September S&P futures before sellers come back but our first resistance will be near 1116. Similar levels in the NASDAQ will be 1902 and again near 1917 and at 666 through 670 in the Russell. As the market approaches such prices, it might be a good idea to implement a bearish strategy (selling calls, buying puts, selling futures, or a combination of the three).

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

July 26, 2010 at 1:40 pm • Posted in General

Bernanke uncertain about recovery (0)

July 21st, 2010

~Come and trade with us at DeCarley Trading to get these reports delivered to your inbox daily~

Is futures trading for you? Listen to Carley Garner’s latest interview : http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=5842&t=3&scode=019106

Bernanke uncertain about recovery

The markets have been nice and choppy. For most this means there has been more money lost than made.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spooked the market by verbally expressing his concern over an uncertain outlook. Investors immediately hit the sell button and with massive sell stop orders working below, the indices had little chance of avoiding the slide. Also, rumors circulating the CME floor suggest that once of the catalysts to the move was a standing 600 lot stop order in the large S&P futures pit that, once elected, triggered an impressive down-draft.

Specifically, Bernanke stated that the U.S. economy faces “unusually uncertain” prospects but mentioned that the Fed hadn’t used all of its resources and would be ready to take further steps to bolster growth if needed. Overall the testimony was less than optimistic but it was also less than surprising. There weren’t any startlingly new revelations.

From a technical standpoint, the market is highly mixed. We have been noting 1066ish as the pivot in the S&P (ie. the make or break area) but it has also been acting as a magnet and this makes it tough to pick a direction. In yesterday’s newsletter we mentioned that we couldn’t be bullish 30 handles from the day’s lows and that playing the other side would be a better play, but we didn’t expect the fall-out that occurred. Going into tomorrow, we are uncertain of the intermediate -term direction but seasonal tendencies suggest that the markets could go lower before moving higher and the S&P failed at its down-trend line. That said, the session closed near the lows and this usually paves the way for back and fill trade overnight. In other words, if you want to be a bear…don’t chase the market lower; selling on rallies might be the play but a “normal” bounce could see prices as high as 1075ish in the S&P.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

July 21, 2010 at 3:04 pm • Posted in General

Stock index futures up against wall, where from here? (0)

Don’t forget to sign up for our next webinar on “Futures Market Slang”, http://www.pfgbest.com/webinar/eventSummary.asp?skey=337713234

Stock index futures up against wall, where from here?

Stock index futures managed to hold on to yesterday’s blockbuster gains, but climbing higher could be a challenge. The S&P is facing significant technical resistance near 1070 and a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings season. Although I feel as though earnings will ultimately be a catalyst for stocks, it appears as though the market is vulnerable to pre-earnings jitters and this could promote some near-term selling.

If you are long this market you should be considering lightening the load a bit, tightening stops or even moving to the sidelines altogether. Price action in this area could make or break equities. In a perfect world, we would like to see a move lower from here as this would enable the bulls to re-establish positions at better pricing.

It has been a quiet news week. The only report released today was weekly jobless claims which beat expectations but wasn’t enough to counter the weak data streak as of late.

We were provided with some interesting stats this morning by our execution brokers on the CME floor (Danny Riley & co.). Not only do they help with us to provide favorable fills for our open outcry options and futures (large S&P) trading, they have a good feel for the markets. According to their sources, including George Cavaligos, the last time that the SPX saw the “death cross” (2007), the market rallied seven consecutive days and then fell apart. However, taking a long position (not short) in the SPX at the time of each cross would have resulted in a profitable trade 73% of the time assuming that the position is held until the 50 SMA moves back above the 200 SMA. However, the other 27% of the time would have sustained large losses…30% or more!

In yesterday’s newsletter we noted resistance in the mid 1060’s but the possibility of a move to 1070. Today’s high seemed to have met our objective and this leaves us relatively neutral. The Russell didn’t quite see our 622 mark, but we think it was enough to fulfill the market’s need to correct the down move.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings…

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

June 29 – Clients were recommended to sell the August S&P 880 puts for about $10

July 7 – Our clients were advised to offset their short 880 puts this afternoon. Fills were coming in between 4.70 and 4.35. This locks in a nice profit per contract and provides freedom to re-sell puts should the market drop.

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

July 8, 2010 at 1:15 pm • Posted in General

Say hello to relief rally, stock index futures? (0)

Follow Carley of DeCarley Trading on Twitter http://twitter.com/carleygarner

Say hello to relief rally, stock index futures?

The equity markets saw little trading volume on what could have been one of the most exciting sessions this year. Aside from temporary volatility following the employment report and in the last hour of trade, the markets spent most of the session migrating back to where they started. In the case of the September S&P, 1024 acted like a magnet.

I hope that most of you were able to get flat early in the session. As the day wore on, trading participants dropped like flies. Light volume tends to propel short-term volatility and today wasn’t any different. Once the cash market closed, futures spent the 15 minutes between the 4 pm Eastern NYSE close and the CME futures close at 4:15 in freefall. This makes for an ugly close, but in all honesty makes me feel better about a possible dead-cat bounce come Tuesday. After all, the move was clearly made on position squaring and those that were anxious to sell ahead of the weekend might sigh in relief come next week.

The government reported that the private sector added 83,000 jobs last month, but in combination with the laid off census workers the headline non-farm payrolls figure was a dismal -125,000. The number was worse than analyst had expected but arguably better than the market had already priced in.

We hate to be repetitive, but we want to reiterate yesterday’s comments :

Our floor brokers are looking for 980 as their first downside target and this is a real possibility but we doubt that those prices will be seen before some type of technical bounce occurs. The markets have just grown too bearish. TV and blog talk of the “death cross” and the “head and shoulders” in the S&P has probably lured in the last of the sellers and it is these late comers that could help propel the markets higher as they are quick to cover bad trades.

If you aren’t familiar with the death cross sell signal, it is when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average. As you can imagine, it isn’t something that happens often and it tends to get the bears excited.

In addition to being technically oversold, there are a few cases to argue that the bears could begin covering shorts. For one, The short covering in the Euro has been swift and pressure on the greenback immense. Also, the gold bugs were the first to indicate a collapse in stocks but gold had its biggest losing day since February….are they now predicting temporary economic stability? Third, we are headed into a holiday weekend and position squaring will play a big part in tomorrow’s action.

It might not last forever, but we feel like buying into weakness is the way to trade this market in the near term.

Our support level of 1012 in the S&P held nicely on Friday, so did 692 in the Russell. Going into Tuesday, we will stick with these numbers but can’t rule out a test of 1000 in the S&P and 682 in the Russell. However, we feel as though the noted levels could be a short-term opportunity for the bulls.

Don’t forget…. He who goes forth on the 4th with a fifth, rarely goes forth on the fifth….

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

June 29 – Clients were recommended to sell the August S&P 880 puts for about $10

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

July 2, 2010 at 1:36 pm • Posted in General

New home sales plummet, stocks under pressure (0)

Follow Carley of DeCarley Trading on Twitter http://twitter.com/carleygarner

New home sales plummet, stocks under pressure

The Federal Reserve announced that they will continue to leave interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time. The decision itself was a non-event but investors were a bit disappointed in the Fed’s downgrade on its economic outlook.

The Fed still believes that the recovery will stay intact but their tone was a bit less optimistic. Specifically, they stated that “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth…largely reflecting developments abroad.” A reminder that European problems could bleed into the U.S. didn’t sit well with the financial markets.

Also putting a negative tone on trade was news of a 33% plunge in new home sales. A government report released this morning claims that the seasonally adjusted pace of sales for the most recent month was 300,000. This was a horrible showing given already meager estimates of 410,000.

In yesterday’s newsletters we stated that:

“The bears seem to have an edge here…at least until we trade in the low 1080’s in the September S&P.”

The markets have reached our downside objectives in the major indices, although The NASDAQ didn’t quite reach 1850 as we had hoped for. From here we are neutral and would like to see the price action tomorrow before forming an opinion. However, we see potential for a move higher from here…let’s see what happens.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

June 23, 2010 at 1:29 pm • Posted in General

Light volume and options ex (0)

June 17th, 2010

Join us for a FREE webinar hosted by PFG Best on July 29th at 3:30 pm Central to discuss “Futures Market Slang” : http://pfgbest.com/webinar/eventSummary.asp?skey=337713234

Light volume and options ex

According to our sources on the CME floor, the day started out with about 60 locals in the S&P pit and near the end of the day it was less than 30. Even later in the day they stated “The floor is clearing”, so by the close there were likely even less. Aside from a few temporary spikes in volume, the action was nearly pathetic. Markets with few participants and scarce liquidity are dangerous for traders and should be avoided by the plague.

The June futures will trade overnight and settle tomorrow morning. If you are still holding June contracts you must get flat (or roll into September) before they settle. Quarterly settlement takes Friday’s trade into account and involves an “ambiguous” formula that leaves your profits and losses at the mercy of math rather than trading skill.

We doubt that traders will come back to play before the weekend and expect tomorrows volume to be even less attractive than Thursday’s. If you insist on trading, we recommend minimal position size and risk. In this type of environment, nearly anything is possible.

That said, the markets reluctance to break below 1100 leads us to believe that this rally might have one last push left in it. Our 1117 resistance in the September S&P futures held nicely, but we still think the mid 1120’s are possible before sellers come back early next week. Similarly, our initial targets in the Russell and NASDQ are 675ish and 1930 respectively.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker

DeCarley Trading

1-866-790-TRADE

Local : 702-947-0701