New York
DeCarley Trading Bond Bulletin
Stocks & Options Trading Newsletter | Carley Garner

Treasury futures retreat…but slowly

Don’t forget to sign up for our next webinar on “Futures Market Slang”,



Treasury futures retreat…but slowly



Although bonds and notes have suffered in recent sessions, the selling has been relatively tame given action seen in the surrounding financial markets.  The recovering Euro and stock market “should” have had a more profound impact on Treasuries.  The lack of bearish sentiment leaves us scratching our heads. 




The 10 year note traded above 3% for the first time in some time but according to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to another record low average of 4.57% from 4.58%.  The 1-year adjustable dropped to 3.7% (hopefully nobody falls for this). 




In economic news, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 454,000 to post a better than expected figure. 




Helping to keep Treasuries afloat, demand for low yielding, but nearly guaranteed, Treasuries continues to be evident.  Today’s $12 billion auction of 10-year notes drew 1.295% with a bid to cover of 2.88. 




Don’t forget, that with the G-20 pledge to get government balance sheets under control there is less concern over supply (excessive Treasury auctions).  The market seems to have taken this promise to heart, and that could also be part of the explanation for hovering prices. 




We still favor the short side of the market, but have scaled back our conviction; if you are sitting on open shorts with a profit…scaling back, tightening stops, etc. is probably a good idea.  In the meantime, the first “good” support lies at 125′09 in the long bond futures and near 121 in the note. 




* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.




**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.







Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.




June 29 – Clients were advised to sell the August 131 Bond calls for 26 or better




July 6 – Our clients were advised to close their short August Bond 131 call position near 10 or 11 (most fills were reported at 11).  This locks in a profit of $234 per contract.




Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.










Carley Garner


Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker


DeCarley Trading




Local : 702-947-0701




*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.




There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.




Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

















































SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Leave a Response

Trading Metro

Before diving into the legalese below, use your common sense when trading. Rely on yourself to define trade execution, don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose, and know the risks of trading. Be responsible, be honest, and use common sense.

Online trading, especially that on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed at Trading Metro are those of the independent authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Trading Metro. Trading Metro has not verified the accuracy of any claim or statement made by any independent author. It's your responsibility to ensure the veracity of information presented.

Any solutions, opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by Trading Metro, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and tools, and does not constitute investment advice. Trading Metro will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Information on Trading Metro is NOT a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Your use of this and all information contained on Trading Metro is governed by the Terms and Conditions of Use. Please click the link to view those terms. Follow this link to read our Editorial Policy and our Privacy Notice.

Feedback Form